Apple, the Lame Duck

Im gonna say something everybody else is too afraid too. Apple is done. Certainly not as a successful tech company, but its time at the top is certainly coming to an end. It will take a few years, my guess is three or four, but essentially Apple is the Lame-duck  leader of the technology world. My rationale behind this: the tragic loss of arguably one of the greatest innovators of our time, Steve Jobs.

Jobs was Apple. He was the brains and the will that made Apple the King of the tech industry for roughly the past ten years. Its been a remarkable run, and I am sure it will be compared to Microsoft’s great run in the 90’s. I just don’t believe a tech company can continue to change the world without their founder and leader taking them forward. People continue to tell me “If Jobs was as as smart as you say he was, dont you think he had a successor chosen?” My response is always the same. Yes. I think he probably did, and I think you can see that with Cook. Clearly Jobs trusted him to name him CEO after he stepped down.He has been friends with Cook for a number of years. But there is just something about the great ones, or rather the crazy ones, the best and brightest innovators that just cant be passed on to somebody else. There is something at their core which nobody else has, which is what makes them so great in the first place. Many will call me an absolute lunatic, but heres a quick history lesson:

Microsoft: Bill Gates to Steve Ballmer- Since Ballmer took the reins the Microsoft stock has lost nearly 60 percent of its value since then. They have also failed to be the innovative company they once were. (I think they are on the right track though)

Sun Microsystems: Scott McNealy to Johnathon Schwartz- Schwartz took over after McNealy successfully led the company for 22 years. Schwartz lasted only three years. In 2009, Sun signed an agreement to be acquired by Oracle.

Apple: Steve Jobs to John Sculley- Sculley started successful after Jobs’ departure, although he was largely just riding out work Jobs had put in. His decisions to compete with IBM, the company’s eroding margins, and the diminished stock price decline all led to him being forced out of Apple in 1993.

These are just a few of the many different times this has happened, but history does not bode well for Apple. However, Jobs was so brilliant and has such a huge pipeline of products that he had a direct influence on, I predict it will take a good 3-4 years before Apple is dethroned. They also are so far ahead of the other in some of their hardware, such as the macbook air and ipad’s, that its going to take a long long time for others to catch up. But with Google, Facebook, and Amazon all right behind them, I think inevitably Apple will be dethroned. Cheers to Jobs and the Apple team for giving us one of the best tech runs of all time if not the best. RIP.

Tech Debate!

Explain your answers below!

I will do a follow up post later this week about the results and my answer!

Slow Down! The Future of NFC Payments

NFC is hot right now. It has been on the radar  and in the headlines for quite a while now in much of the tech world. Square, Apple, Google, and many others are juping right into the deep end, investing millions into what it thinks is going to be the next great eCommerce revolution since Paypal. People will never have to carry credit cards ever again, and queues will move faster than anyone could ever imagine.

Slow Down.

NFC is brilliant for somebody like me or the many that love new technology. Processing rapid payments wihtout having to bring cards around is really nice. I could see myself using this all the time especially because I hate carrying cash and I dont always have my wallet with me. I do however, always have my phone. The problem is that other than the people who avidly follow technology, the rest of the world is not as quick to adopt such drastic changes. In fact, they are painstakingly slow to adopt such things.

For example, look at Netflix. They saw the future a long long time ago. They knew streaming was going to be the future of television and movie rentals. They offered streaming through the Xbox and computer before almost everyone else.  The DVD mail service was supposed to be the bridge to getting people to switch to streaming. However, people really arent crossing that bridge very fast.The DVD mail portion of the business is still at the core of their existence all do to the fact the general public is far slower to adopt radical changes in technology than we think they are. People hate change.

This is where NFC payments comes in. This is a very big change for most people. Most people will have significant questions regarding the security and  more importantly usability. People are more skeptical (and rightfully so) about how their money is being processed than ever before. The other problems lay with the infrastructure.

PC week describes the largest hurdles facing the NFC technology and I agree with all of them.

The problem with trying to jump on the NFC bandwagon right now is that there are too many bandwagons. You know how some businesses accept Discover Card or American Express while others don’t? That same sort of fragmentation exists with NFC implementations, making it confusing for businesses to choose which NFC solution to support.

Many businesses, such as McDonald’s, Walgreens, and Cinemark Theatres already have payment terminals capable of processing contactless transactions from cards like the ones offered by Chase. A business can embrace the Apple NFC system if it comes to fruition, but that would seemingly limit the value to only customers carrying NFC-capable iPhones or iPads. It might be nice, but it’s too limited a population of customers.

For maximum efficiency, contactless payments are typically for smaller purchase that don’t require a signature–under $25. For this reason, businesses that deal in higher average transactions probably won’t get much benefit from NFC, while restaurants, coffee shops, and other smaller businesses are more suited to take advantage of it.

My take

As you can see, I think we have a long way to go before NFC payments become the norm. Credit cards are not dead yet and probably wont be for a while. I think this change will take the better part of the decade, if they even become the norm. Who knows, with slow adoption rates, some new e-payment system within the next few years could completely wipe NFC off the map before it even has a chance to grow. I think there are certainly questions about the security that need some answering and I also don’t see how the credit card will die if these payments are really only to be used on things that cost less than $25. How are people supposed to buy more expensive items? O yeah a credit card. Certainly retailers should start to think about how they are going to prepare for this change if it comes, but I think they have plenty of time before they have to start making decisions.

Would love to here everyone elses take on NFC payments.